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SHANGHAI, China - A housing-market meltdown may be wracking
the U.S. economy and shaking the financial markets, but in Asia, the
question is how to cool things down.
From China and South Korea to India and Singapore, housing prices are
soaring amid strong economic growth and surging demand from developers
and upwardly mobile families who want to upgrade their homes.
Of all Asia's markets, China's is the hottest - although the boom is
creating problems there, too. Housing inflation is pricing some people
out of the market, and authorities worried about excessive development
are raising interest rates and taking other steps to curb lending.
Experts also warn that many mortgages are risky and suggest the country
could face a property crisis of its own someday.
For now, demand is being driven by people like Li Ruoning, a single,
22-year-old public relations company employee in Shanghai - just one
of millions across Asia whose hearts are set on fulfilling the dream
of owning their own home.
She borrowed about US$40,000 from her parents in central China for
the down payment on a small apartment just five minutes from her job.
What's more, Li says she would buy another apartment as an investment,
if she had the money.
"I'm pretty sure that housing prices will not drop, especially
with the best locations," she said.
Many Chinese families are already deep into speculating on property,
a main driver of the surging prices that have Chinese authorities worried
a bubble may be forming. New apartments north of Shanghai's famous Bund
waterfront are selling for a record $17,000 per square meter.
Yi Xianrong, a prominent economist at the China Academy of Social Sciences,
a government think tank, is one of those sounding the alarm.
He contends that China's housing loans are riskier than those in the
U.S. because most loan applicants give false information about their
assets and income.
Since China lacks a comprehensive credit data system, borrowers often
manage to qualify for loans using false information, Yi says. He believes
the overall quality of property loans in China may be even worse than
the risky mortgages that are causing so much trouble in the U.S.
"I estimate that the large majority of mortgage holders would
not meet the standards for even subprime loans," Yi said in an
interview with the state-run magazine Oriental Outlook.
A collapse of China's property market would reverberate throughout
the world financial system - although few experts believe it would happen
anytime soon.
The lack of reliable credit information obscures the level of risk,
especially in China.
"It's hard to tell what the total exposure to real estate lending
is. It's very difficult to judge until you have a price correction,"
said Nick Lardy of the Peterson Institute, a Washington think tank.
Still, given the enormous demand for new housing across the region,
a sudden correction in Asian property markets appears unlikely.
In India, where housing prices have been rising 30 per cent to 40 per
cent annually the last couple years and have remained firm so far this
year, experts see fewer risks.
Families tend to rely more on personal resources and banks have been
steadily raising interest rates and cutting back on lending, which is
modestly restraining development. A newly introduced credit score system
is expected to help banks do a better job of managing risks.
"The Reserve Bank of India has been keeping a tight lid on banks'
exposure to real estate," said Ritesh Maheswari, a credit analyst
with Standard & Poor's in Singapore. "We don't foresee large-scale
defaults."
Hong Kong is still regaining ground lost during the Asian financial
crisis of the late 1990s and provisional government statistics show
steady growth through September. Singapore's high-tech boom helped boost
private home prices by 8.3 per cent in the second quarter from the first,
the second-fastest pace on record.
In both cities, the talk is of how to cool, not revive the market.
Meanwhile, property prices in Japan have just begun to rebound after
16 years of declines amid a surge in buying by investment funds, according
to the Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport. Recently, though,
housing investment has fallen amid a tightening of building standards.
Across much of Asia, property lending differs markedly from that in
the U.S. Lending standards vary from country to country, but in many
markets including China, lenders tend to demand down payments of at
least 30 per cent and often much higher.
The big down payments mean "there's still quite a big cushion"
against losses, said Sam Crispin, founder of Shanghai-based real estate
firm Crispin Property Consultants.
In Hong Kong and Singapore, government support through low-cost rentals
or low-interest home loans to poor families helps to minimize the risk
of foreclosures. In South Korea, an earlier crackdown on risky mortgages
has reduced the risks.
In China, the residential market may be sounder than the commercial
property market. The frenzied construction of shopping malls and office
towers has authorities worried over the potential for a debt crisis
if the new projects fail to attract buyers and developers default on
bank loans.
So far, Beijing's efforts to rein in soaring prices and investment
have had little impact: Housing price inflation in China hit a new monthly
high of 9.5 per cent in October, with prices in Beijing rising by nearly
18 per cent.
"I found prices rose too fast and I didn't know why," said
Sun Chunming, a technician at an online gaming company in Shanghai who
bought an apartment in August. "But I was worried if I didn't buy
it now, I might not be able to afford one later."
The biggest property lender, China Construction Bank, recently issued
a report warning that China's banks are entering a high-risk period
for personal housing loans.
The report urged banks to beware of falsified credit data and to tighten
loan terms for families buying more than one property. The central bank
recently raised down payment requirements for second mortgages to 40
per cent, but analysts say more needs to be done to rein in the market
- without triggering a collapse.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao warned earlier this month that the government
needs to tighten controls to keep real estate speculation from "causing
market disorder."
"The government does need to do something fundamental to improve
the situation. Tightening mortgage operations is crucial for avoiding
a financial crisis," said Zhang Yu, a real estate analyst from
Guotai Jun'an Securities.
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