Interest rates down? If yes..when?
DAWIE ROODT, chief economist at the Efficient Group: "Both CPIX and CPI came in exactly where we expected. (CPIX) is a good number. The interest rate environment looks favourable and I think we will see a rate cut in February next year."
ANNABEL BISHOP, economist at Investec: "October's CPIX inflation rate came out slightly above our expectations. We expect the inflation target will be achieved in the rest of 2004 and over most of 2005. However, it could still be threatened on the low side in April 2005."
COLEN GARROW, economist at Brait: "The numbers are good, but given the seasonal uncertainty, I do not expect a rate cut in December."
MIKE SCHUSSLER, economist at T-Sec: "CPIX is a disappointment, but no train smash. I still see interest rates declining in February and certainly the lower oil price strengthens the case for this overall. I think the number will have a slightly negative effect on the bond market, but it won't have an effect on the rand or the stock market.
MAGAN MISTRY, Nedcor Economist: "The CPI numbers were
in line with market expectations with inflation being helped by the
strong rand. However, the monetary authorities are likely to focus
on domestic spending, credit growth, money supply growth and the deterioration
in the current account. As a result, interests rates are likely to
remain unchanged at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting."
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