In the area 4 – Western Cape


Statistics and figures produced by SPS (Selected Property Services), a computerised properties for sale information facility supported by nine prominent estate agencies serving the Bloubergstrand, Table View, Parklands, Flamingo Vlei, Sunset Beach, West Beach and Sunningdale precincts of the Western Cape, indicates that stock levels are now lower then they have been for 24 months and that the homes on offer vary in price from R330,000 to R12,5 million, says Mike Abrahamse, franchise principal for Rawson Properties in Blaauwberg.

“Five to six months ago,” said Abrahamse, “we had 600 plus homes on our stock list. We are now down 25% to 350.”

This is significant, said Abrahamse, because it indicates that more and more homeowners are surviving the downturn and no longer need to sell their homes. This, in turn, he says, will lead to those homes which are for sale no longer having to cut prices as drastically as before and will, in fact, start to escalate upwards.

“I see demand increasing soon to the point where it more than matches the supply. As the “slack” gets taken up, so will prices start increasing,” said Abrahamse.

Another reason for supposing that prices are set to rise, said Abrahamse, is that it is now nine months since the first interest rate drop (in December 2008) and it always takes almost exactly that length of time for the benefits of such an interest rate change to be felt in the house market.

“It does not take a rocket scientist to predict that five successive interest rate falls since December will now start having an effect,” said Abrahamse.

The first signs of a recovery in the US and European house market, said Abrahamse, have been evident for just over three months now – and SA usually lags about six months behind these pace setters in the housing sector.

“All things considered, I am, therefore, willing to predict that the housing market in the areas we serve, and in SA generally, will come out of its winter hibernation and, encouraged by easier access to bank finance and lower rates, will move into a higher gear by the fourth quarter of this year.”

What does this mean for the potential investor?

It means, said Abrahamse, that if they are serious about buying at the best possible price, they should do so in the next two to four months.

“We all know that the right time to buy is at the end of a down cycle or the start of an up cycle and that is in my view close at hand. I just cannot see prices going any lower in our area.”

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