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This is more than three weeks ahead of schedule. It also plans monthly
meetings.
(Reuters) - South Africa's central bank will meet next week on interest
rates, more than three weeks ahead of schedule, cementing the case for
an early rate cut.
The bank said in a statement on its website it had changed meeting dates
for the rest of 2009, with the monetary policy committee meeting every
month, except for July, without giving reasons for the change.
The MPC previously met every two months.
Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni raised the possibility of calling
a special policy meeting after cutting the repo rate by 100 basis points
to 10.5 percent in February, saying the decision depended on economic
data.
Since then, figures have shown the economy contracted by 1.8 percent
in the fourth quarter of 2008, the first fall in a decade, and manufacturing
output and exports have plunged, stung by the global downturn.
Analysts say Africa's biggest economy is on course for its first recession
in 17 years.
Wednesday's announcement also follows a meeting of the Group of 20 finance
ministers and central bank governors over the weekend that urged fiscal
and monetary policy measures to contain the global economic crisis.
Analysts said the meeting would likely cut the repo rate aggressively.
"That's a clear indication that some decision is going to be taken.
My money would be on a one percent cut in rates," Citadel economist
Dave Mohr said.
Government bonds firmed after the announcement, with the yield, which
moves inversely to the price, on the 2015 bond falling to 7.835 percent
at 1109 GMT from 7.96 percent before. The rand strengthened to 9.8845
from 9.93 against the dollar.
The seven-member policy committee first started unwinding the 5 percentage
points of rate hikes between June 2006 and June 2008 in December, with
a 50 basis point move.
Economists predict at least another 300 basis points in cuts this year.
Official data earlier in the day showed retail sales grew for the first
time in nine months in January, although analysts warned the recovery
may be short-lived as jobs are cut and economic growth wanes.
Statistics South Africa said sales rose by 1.7 percent compared to the
same month last year compared to a contraction of 0.2 percent year-on-year
in December.
But the retail sector is, so far, the only one showing signs of recovery.
Manufacturing output plunged 11.1 percent year-on-year in January, while
exports collapsed 25 percent during the same months. New vehicle sales
fell 36.3 percent in February, the biggest fall in more than two decades.
"A rate cut is overdue," said Brait economist Colen Garrow.
"The actions (policy decisions) are going to be on what we need to
do to pull the economy onto the path of recovery," he said.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)'s schedule is as follows:
MPC Meetings for 2009
|
Month |
New dates |
Remarks |
|
March |
Monday, 23 and Tuesday 24 |
New date |
|
April |
Wednesday, 29 and Thursday 30 |
New date |
|
May |
Wednesday, 27 and Thursday, 28 |
New date |
|
June |
Wednesday, 24 and Thursday, 25 |
Fixed dates |
|
July |
No meetings |
New date |
|
August |
Wednesday, 12 and Thursday, 13 |
Fixed dates |
|
September |
Monday, 21 and Tuesday, 22 |
New date |
|
October |
Wednesday, 21 and Thursday, 22 |
Fixed dates |
|
November |
Monday, 16 and Tuesday, 17 |
New date |
|
December |
Wednesday, 16 and Thursday, 17 |
New date |

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