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Want to buy property or shares in Zimbabwe? Just bring
along a bag of fertiliser or some cooking oil.
Maybe it's not quite that easy. But liberalisation of the economy has
started and, as a country on its knees desperate for food and "strategic"
goods, Zimbabwe has introduced a barter system in return for assets.
Last week the Zimbabwean reserve bank governor issued a monetary policy
statement introducing a barter system for essential "strategic
imports", by means of which items can be imported in exchange for
domestic assets, such as shares and real estate. Strategic imports include
fertilisers, water treatment chemicals, grain, agricultural equipment,
fuel, cement, cooking oil, salt, yeast, animal feed and drugs.
It is a neat solution for a country that does not have the foreign
exchange to pay for goods it needs. The mechanics of the system have
not been revealed yet, but it will probably be managed by the state.
But will anyone want Zimbabwean assets as opposed to cold, hard-currency
cash? Some clever investors might jump at the opportunity. John Legat,
portfolio manager of Imara's Zimbawbe fund, says that if Mugabe is ousted,
Zimbabwe will turn around -- and fast.
"The turnaround will be very quick. You can't wait for changes
to happen ... [If you do] you won't miss the first 10%, you will lose
the first 100% return," says Legat.
In the past few years the Zimbabwean stock market has not done badly
considering the country's political and economic meltdown. Roelfe Horne
of Investec Asset Management says the reason for this is that shares
are the only asset that will keep up with the hyperinflation in the
country.
Legat says the stock market has not lost value in US-dollar terms --
quite an accomplishment considering that GDP has halved. But returns
are very erratic for foreigners because the Zimbabwean dollar is extremely
volatile.
However, if you don't have any fertiliser lying around, how do you
get a piece of the action, considering the exchange controls both in
South Africa and Zimbabwe? The trick is first to buy shares in companies
listed in both Zimbabwe and South Africa -- for example, Old Mutual
or PPC. You can buy the shares locally and send them to a broker in
Zimbabwe who will sell them and buy a portfolio of local shares.
Low risk
There are low-risk Zimbabwean shares to be bought: many major Zimbabwean
companies have interests across several different sectors, because exchange
controls have prevented them from expanding abroad. A similar situation
existed in South Africa in the 1990s, when Anglo American owned a bank
and other companies not related to its core business. So buying shares
in a few of these major companies will give you a diversified exposure
to the Zimbabwean economy.
"You don't have to be very clever: just buy some of the larger
companies and buy on weakness rather than chase in this environment,"
says Legat. If you have a lot of money you want to punt, the Imara Zimbabwe
fund has a minimum investment of US$100 000 and is aimed at private
investors rather than institutions. When this fund was launched a year
ago the take-up was so great it had to turn away new inflows within
the first two weeks.
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