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Reading
through the 2010 Emerging Trends in Real Estate report, it is interesting
to note just how globalised the modern property market has become.
In the past, local trends and influences were the major determining
factors in the property market of a specific region, but as the world
- and its property markets - become increasingly globalised, the issues
and investment advice pertinent to the global market become more relevant
to localised markets such as ours, says Peter Gilmour, Chairman
of RE/MAX of Southern Africa, who held the position of Senior Vice President
of Franchise Sales at the Denver Headquarters of RE/MAX International
for the past seven years before returning to SA.
He adds that many global property trends noted in the 31st edition of
the annual report, published jointly by the Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers,
hold true in the South African property market too. In fact, some
of the statements in the report could well have been written specifically
for the South African market, even though the report focuses on the US,
Canadian, and Latin American real estate markets, says Gilmour.
The findings Gilmour refers to, include, among others:
that debt markets will remain severely compromised as resuscitated banks
increase lending slowly, employing strict underwriting standards and requiring
significant equity stakes from borrowers.
that first-to-hit-bottom housing markets are stabilising further, despite
more foreclosures, and that modest improvement in some areas is seen while
restrained mortgage lenders and cash-strapped purchasers limit the scope
of any rebound; and
that developers go on enforced holidays and that development doesnt
pencil out when investors can buy existing real estate in the bargain
basement.
While there have been signs of improvement in property sales activity
levels, demand remains constrained by high household debt levels and tight
lending criteria, says Gilmour, noting that less than 50% of bond
applications in SA are approved while banks widely apply loan-to-value
ratios of 80% or more, which means that homebuyers often need to have
a deposit of at least 20% to qualify for a bond. Furthermore, the
constrained demand cannot absorb the current supply of available as well
as distressed properties coming into the market, which in turn, coupled
with the difficulty of obtaining development finance, can partly be blamed
for the slump in new property developments, he says.
With all the similarities in local and international property trends,
Gilmour further believes that certain aspects pertaining to the Investment
Best Bets for 2010 as proposed by the report may well serve as a
useful guideline for South Africans who are considering a property purchase
in the current market.
For example, properties located close to workplaces or transport
nodes, or within walking distances of our much-improved public transport
network, will indeed become increasingly sought-after as the congestion
on our roads increase, where as environmentally-friendly features in homes
will become the deciding factor for many buyers as electricity costs in
South Africa increase at a minimum rate of 25% per year, he says.
And although he agrees with the fact that property buyers should be patient
and selective and focus on quality, Gilmour cautions buyers not to assume
that a property is a bargain simply because its is a buyers
market. Locally, even distressed properties are listed at current
market value, says Gilmour, reminding consumers that any property
purchases should always be treated as a long-term investment.
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