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Mike Greeff, CEO of Greeff Properties, recently returned
from Western Australia (where he signed an association agreement with
Perth estate agency, Glen OBrien Real Estate) with the message
that the current lull period in the residential property market is being
experienced more severely in Australia than it is in South Africas
Western Cape.
It should, he said, be a comfort to many that what
we are going through is a global cycle, not just a local slump, and
the good news is that the Australians recognise this and are already
predicting an upturn by mid 2009. We need now to take on board some
of their optimism.
Greeff drew attention to a Perth newspaper report in which a local
developer, James Limnios, said that for five or six years the Perth
property market had experienced unprecedented growth and this had resulted
in investors becoming overconfident and overextended.
The Perth newspaper reported that there had been a never-ending
surge in speculation and that when the interest rates finally rose some
developers were left with unsold apartments. However and this
is relevant to the SA situation correctly priced, well designed
units in Australia are by and large holding their value or have seen
price drops of less than 10%.
Limnios, said Greeff, had advised his clients that now is a good time
to buy provided that they look for real value. He found it interesting
that two new competitively priced Perth apartment developments are selling
steadily, although at a far slower date than previously.
I learned from our Australian discussions that the fundamentals
of the property market are still sound worldwide. It most cases it has
only been the badly positioned, overpriced projects and homes that have
ended up not selling. I found that there is real confidence that the
upswing is not far off because Australia has now levelled off its interest
rate.
The Australian experience closely matches that of SA but we are
in a better position than the Australians because our credit restrictions
were applied timeously and our property investors have not been nearly
as wild and irresponsible as those in Australia or, for that matter,
the USA, Canada and the UK.
As I have said before, and as Limnios said, now is a very good
time to invest provided that you look for quality.
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